Fabricātis

The hype around 3D Printing and Personal Fabrication has grown exponentially in the last year. This is expected for any exciting new technology that is showing the potential to go mainstream.

However, as pundits and observers are quick to point out, there isn’t a “Killer App” that would drive consumers to buy a 3D Printer. This in turn pushes some estimates for mass adoption out into the 10-15 year timeframe.

Robert Schouwenburg summarizes the arguments against a “Killer App” in a recent post: http://www.schouwenburg.com/killer-application-for-3d-printing. I’d like to expand further and discuss how this then changes or at least influences the purchasing decision and adoption.

Let’s consider that some consumer technology purchases are based on the broader appeal and possibilities a technology could bring to a family or household.

A lot of families in the 80’s bought their first computer right at the time when the Personal Computer made it’s jump from early adoption to mainstream. It was a significant investment (usually > $5,000) and there wasn’t a clear return, just a promise that a PC would bring enjoyment and utility for a family.

Sure enough PCs delivered on that promise and over time proved to be even more enjoyable and useful than initially expected.

So what about 3D Printing & Personal Fabrication? While cool and appealing to makers and artists, could it not also bring enjoyment and prove its usefulness for an average family?

I believe that this will be very similar to the 80’s PC purchase and some families will be willing to invest > $1,200 in a 3D Printer based on expectations alone.

The other parallel then is that a lot of people will have underestimated the technical skills required to really operate a 3D printer. While some people will be letdown others will be looking for community classes to gain competency.

Much the same as spreadsheet and word processing classes were in high demand in the early 90’s we can expect the same demand for learning simple CAD tools like TinkerCAD.

At the same time most people are likely to first experience 3D printing by trying services such as Shapeways, Ponoko, and the like. Picture someone going to an introduction to CAD course, coming home to upload their model, and just days later they have their custom designed buttons. This will work to build consumer confidence in the technology and make the benefits of owning a home printer more tangible.

My prediction then is that there will not be a “Killer App” for 3D Printing and yet we will see a push through early adoption and into the first phase of mass adoption within 3 to 5 years. I’ll expand more my thoughts on the adoption phases in the next post :)